In cash, a chip is worth a dollar. In tournaments it isn't: (Independent Chip Model) translates your chips into expected real money based on the payouts. And it turns out chips aren't worth their value linearly — winning chips is worth less than losing them.
The asymmetry of chips
If you double your stack you don't double your expected prize (you can't win more than first place), but if you go to zero you lose everything. That asymmetry makes risking your tournament more expensive than the raw chips suggest. That's why some hands that are profitable "in chips" (+EV in chips) are foldable by ICM.
The bubble and the final table
- Bubble (right before the money): you fold marginal hands you'd play in cash. Medium stacks don't want to risk it; big stacks apply pressure.
- Final table: every elimination bumps up your prize. Play more cautiously with a medium stack; exploit those who are just trying to survive.
EjemploOn the bubble with a medium stack, you're dealt A♥J♣ and a short stack goes all-in. In cash you call easily. By ICM, if calling and losing busts you before the money, folding AJ can be correct: the money from surviving outweighs the hand's value.
💡 Clave: Chips aren't worth their value linearly. Near the money, survival has value: adjust and play more cautiously.